With millions of voters casting early ballots, the Pew Research Center released a survey showing President Donald Trump trailing former Vice President Joe Biden by a margin of 52 per cent to 42 per cent.
The president’s declining numbers among white Catholics is a large part of the reason for his overall decline. In Pew polls in July and August, Trump led Biden among white Catholics by 19 points, 59 per cent to 40 per cent. As the autumn brought a resurgence of the Covid-19 pandemic, the president’s response was seen to be inadequate, culminating in his own hospitalisation. His support among white Catholics declined to an 8-point margin, 51 per cent to 43 per cent.
Meanwhile, Biden’s support among Latino Catholics remains robust, with 67 per cent of Latino Catholics planning to vote for Biden, up two points from earlier this year. The president has the support of just 26 per cent of Latino Catholics according to Pew. Latinos now constitute 37 per cent of voting Catholics according to the survey. Biden is also supported overwhelmingly by black Protestants (90 per cent against nine per cent), Jews (70 per cent to 27 per cent) and atheists and agnostics (83 per cent to 11 per cent).
An additional religious demographic group is growing, those who identify as “nothing in particular”. This group now constitutes one-fifth of the electorate, up from 15 per cent in 2008, and significantly larger than the 5 per cent who identify as atheists. Whereas 44 per cent of atheists have a four-year college degree, only 20 per cent of the “nothing in particular” group does, lower than all other religious groups.
Unlike other religious groups, which have stayed relatively stable in terms of which party they support in recent years, the “nothing in particulars” have shifted decisively towards the Republican Party. In 2008, 28.4 per cent of them identified as Republicans but today 40.7 per cent call themselves Republicans.
Although they report not paying significant attention to public affairs, when they do, they get their information from Facebook, Twitter or Youtube. They also have high levels of economic insecurity which are likely exacerbated by the pandemic. So far, however, while Trump maintains the same level of support among the group as he achieved in 2016, Biden is lagging behind Hillary Clinton’s share. In all other groups Trump’s mishandling of the pandemic is seen as the main reason for his declining support.
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